This Week in Auto Racing July 30 - August 1

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - All three of NASCAR's national touring series are in action this weekend, with the Sprint Cup and Camping World Truck Series at Pocono and the Nationwide Series at Iowa. Formula One heads to Budapest for the Hungarian Grand Prix.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500 - Pocono Raceway - Pocono, PA

Sprint Cup Series teams travel to Pocono Raceway for the second time within the past two months. If there is one driver who's looking forward to returning to Pocono the most, it's Denny Hamlin.

Pocono has been Hamlin's house lately. He won here one year ago and then again in June. If he wins Sunday's 500-mile race, he will become the third driver to score three consecutive victories at Pocono. Tim Richmond accomplished the feat from 1986-87, and Bobby Allison turned the trick from 1982-83.

Hamlin, currently third in points, is tied with Jimmie Johnson for most victories so far this season with five.

The driver with the most wins after the September 11 race in Richmond, VA will enter the championship Chase in the first seed. All 12 drivers who qualify for the playoffs -- the last 10 events of the season -- will have their point totals adjusted to 5,000. Each driver will then have 10 bonus points added for every race he won during the 26-event regular season.

"It's good that we're going back in a relatively close time frame; obviously, we run really well there," Hamlin said. "In my mind, we have a lot of really good tracks coming up. A lot of tracks that we just won at we're getting ready to go back to. We need to get two more wins I feel like before the Chase starts to kind of solidify where we will be bonus-points wise when we get to the Chase."

Hamlin is tied with Jeff Gordon, Rusty Wallace, Darrell Waltrip and Richmond for second most wins at Pocono with four. Bill Elliott holds the track record with five victories. Hamlin's first two wins at Pocono came during rookie season in 2006.

The battle for the top-12 spots in the Chase remains tight with six races to go before it begins. Heading into Pocono, 283 points separate eighth-place Matt Kenseth from 17th-place Kasey Kahne.

Clint Bowyer currently holds the 12th position, while 13th-place Mark Martin is 62 points behind Bowyer. Last year, Martin finished second in points and scored five victories. The 51-year-old driver has yet to win in 2010.

After winning the Brickyard 400 last Sunday, Jamie McMurray kept his Chase hopes alive, as he advanced two positions in the standings to 16th. McMurray, who became the third driver to win both the Daytona 500 and the 400-mile race at Indianapolis in the same season, is now 151 points out of 12th-place.

"Everyone wants to make the Chase," McMurray said. "Getting to win the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 means more to me this year than making the Chase. This year or in 10 years, the guy that won that race one time everybody will talk about. The guy that finished third in the points, nobody cares. I would really like to be in the Chase, but I have no focus on that at all."

Pocono, dubbed "The Tricky Triangle," is one of the most unique tracks on the Cup schedule with its 2.5-mile triangular shape.

Though Indianapolis has a rectangular-shaped layout, Pocono somewhat resembles Indy, with both tracks having relatively flat banking. The banking in each of Indy's four turns is nine degrees, whereas Pocono's corners vary from six to 14 degrees.

The July race at Pocono used to run prior to Indianapolis until 2007. Now, Indy is scheduled one week before Pocono.

"It used to be that if you ran good at Pocono, then you had a good shot at running good at Indy," driver/owner Tony Stewart said. "I don't know if it's still correlated the last couple years with the new car. The thing about Indy is that it's got a couple little bumps here and there, but when you go to Pocono, it's rough and bumpy. The setups are quite a bit different now."

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500.

Nationwide Series

U.S. Cellular 250 - Iowa Speedway - Newton, IA

While the Sprint Cup and Camping World Truck Series run at Pocono Raceway, the Nationwide Series competes at Iowa Speedway. It's the second time NASCAR's second-tier series races at the 0.875-mile oval.

Eight drivers -- Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Paul Menard, Michael McDowell, Joe Nemechek and Reed Sorenson -- will do the Pocono/Iowa combo this weekend.

Keselowski currently holds a 205-point lead over Edwards.

Last Saturday at O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis, Edwards' 2nd-place finish compared to an eight-place run for Keselowski allowed Edwards to trim 23 points from Keselowski's lead.

"We had a great race last week at O'Reilly Raceway Park and made up some ground in the championship run; we need to build on that at Iowa," Edwards said.

Keselowski is the defending race winner at Iowa.

When the series competed at Iowa for the first time one year ago, Keselowski and his then crew chief, Tony Eury Sr., gambled on old tires. Keselowski remained on the track, while most of the leaders pitted during a late-race caution. He managed to pass Kyle Busch for the lead with nine laps to go and then held off Busch for the win.

In addition to his race winnings, Keselowski collected a $75,000 bonus from series title sponsor Nationwide Insurance for scoring the victory in the third "Dash 4 Cash" event on the 2009 schedule. Full-time series regulars and part- time/limited series-only regulars are those eligible for the insurance company's bonus program. No driver earned the prize money at Nashville and Kentucky earlier in the season.

In April, Harvick, who was then a full-time Nationwide competitor, won $25,000 in the first "Dash 4 Cash" race of the year at Nashville. Joey Logano wasn't eligible for the bonus when he won in June at Kentucky, so the bonus has rolled over to $50,000 for Iowa. Harvick and Busch will not eligible at Iowa, as they will try to spoil the reward for the regulars.

"I'm pretty excited about going back to Iowa Speedway for the Nationwide Series race," Harvick said. "Last year, we didn't have the finish we wanted due to a parts failure, but I'm ready to go back and show what we can really do at Iowa."

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the U.S. Cellular 250.

Camping World Truck Series

Pocono Mountains 125 - Pocono Raceway - Pocono, PA

The Camping World Truck Series will compete at Pocono Raceway for the first time this weekend. The series' inaugural stop at Pocono marks the final track currently hosting a Sprint Cup race at which trucks have yet to compete.

This will not be the first time the series competes in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Truck teams used to run at the now defunct Nazareth Speedway in Nazareth, PA from 1996-2001.

Saturday's race at the 2.5-mile Pocono track is scheduled to be 125 miles in length, which means it's a 50-lap shootout.

"I think adding Pocono is great for the series, and by making it a 50-lap race, you are sure to see a lot of action," said four-time and defending series champion Ron Hornaday. "I know that going down in to turn one, you better have a good spot, because we will probably be four or five wide."

Hornaday has previous experience at Pocono, with two Cup starts here during the 2001 season, when he drove the No.14 car for team owner A.J. Foyt.

Last Friday, Hornaday ended a 22-race winless streak at O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis. Hornaday recorded his 46th career truck victory, but his first since August 1, 2009 at Nashville. He currently is fourth in points (-212).

Todd Bodine is the current leader, holding a 177-point advantage over Aric Almirola. Bodine is another driver who has previous experience at Pocono.

"I think you're going to see a heck of a race," Bodine said. "I know everybody is saying that. The way the trucks are and the drafting that's involved, the way Pocono is, long straightaways with a little bit slower corner, drafting is going to be very large, it's going to be critical.

"I think a lot of the veteran drivers like myself and [Mike] Skinner and Hornaday, guys that have competed there in the Cup Series, we're going to have a little advantage for a while. But I think that the guys in the Truck Series are good enough and the teams are good enough that they're going to catch up."

Three Sprint Cup regulars -- Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler -- also will compete in the truck race at Pocono.

Kahne is driving the No.18 Toyota for Kyle Busch Motorsports. Busch will be in Iowa on Saturday for the Nationwide race there. Kahne is undefeated in two career truck starts. He won the last two races of the 2004 season -- Darlington and Homestead.

"Kyle and I had been talking about it for a while, and I told him I was interested in running a truck race or two for KBM this year," Kahne said. "He had another obligation with the NASCAR Nationwide Series race on Saturday, so he asked if I could race his truck. It's a great opportunity for me to come back to the series and compete with really good equipment. I've watched Kyle put the team together, and it's really been impressive how well they've done this year as a first-year team."

The format for truck qualifying at Pocono will be considerably different. The qualifying order is set by inverting the times from Friday's final practice session. Trucks are released in approximately 25-second increments, and drafting is prohibited.

Thirty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for Pocono Mountains 125.

FORMULA ONE

Hungarian Grand Prix - Hungaroring - Budapest, Hungary

Days after their controversial 1-2 finish in the German Grand Prix, Ferrari is hoping its momentum continues for this weekend's Hungarian Grand Prix, but without any dispute.

Fernando Alonso claimed the victory at Hockenheim, but his teammate, Felipe Massa, was robbed of a potential win after his Ferrari team instructed him to move aside and allow Alonso to take the lead with 20 laps remaining.

Shortly before Alonso made his winning pass, Massa's race engineer, Rob Smedley, told his driver over the radio that "Fernando is faster than you. Can you confirm you understand the message?" Massa wound up finishing second.

Formula One's governing body, the International Automobile Federation (FIA), determined Ferrari breached sporting regulations and fined the Italian team $100,000. Race stewards determined Ferrari gave team orders to Massa, which interfered with the race result.

Stewards also have forwarded their decision to the World Motor Sport Council (WMSC) for further review. It means Ferrari could face additional penalties.

Lewis Hamilton from McLaren holds the world championship lead heading into Budapest. Hamilton has accumulated 157 points so far this season, compared to 143 for his teammate and defending champion Jenson Button. Red Bull Racing teammates Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel are tied with 136 points each, while Alonso sits fifth in the standings with 123.

Hamilton is the defending winner of the Hungarian GP. Last year in Budapest, He started fourth but overtook Mark Webber for second in the opening laps. Alonso, the pole sitter, lost his right-front tire just after making his first pit stop on lap 11. That allowed Hamilton to take the lead and run in front for the remainder of the 70-lap event, as he finished nearly 12 seconds ahead of then Ferrari driver Kimi Raikkonen.

"I love racing in Hungary," Hamilton said. "I've always run well there. I won in 2007, and winning there last year was one of the best races of my career in terms of sheer satisfaction. The whole team was elated with that result, because we'd just performed one of the greatest turnarounds in the sport, coming from the back of the grid at the start to take victory."

But last year's Hungarian GP was rather subdued following Massa's near-fatal crash in qualifying.

During the second segment of qualifying (Q2), Massa ran off the course in turn four and slammed head on into the tire barrier after being struck on the head by a spring that came off of Rubens Barrichello's car. He underwent surgery for a fractured skull. Massa also suffered a concussion and an injury to his left eye during the incident.

The Brazilian sat out the remainder of the 2009 season.

"It was a difficult time, almost a year ago," Massa said. "It was a very difficult time for me. Somebody was saying that I still need to be here, so I'm here, very happy and working, still doing my job, so let's go back to Hungary and try to achieve a good result there."

The 2.722-mile (4.381 km), 16-turn Hungaroring road course is located 12 miles northeast of Budapest and is set in a natural amphitheater. Overtaking is quite difficult since the circuit is very narrow with a lot of corners. The pole sitter for the Hungarian GP has gone on to win six of the last 11 times.

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MySportsbook.com refunds all bets on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay from NFL week one.

(September 14) – Week one of NFL action saw three teams go scoreless for the first time since 1977.  Another four were unable to get a touchdown and almost half of the underdogs covered the spread. Those three teams saved bettors at MySportsbook.com from losing out completely, thanks to the company’s unique NFL Shutout Rule -- which ensures that if the team you backed goes scoreless, your wager is refunded.

Sportsbook refunded tens of thousands of dollars to customers who bet on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the three teams that stunk up the field so badly that their fans and backers never had a chance to get up from their couches and cheer.  In the spirit of the low scoring start to the season, odds makers at the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino have set odds on how many total shutouts there will be this season. 

MySportsbook.com has posted updated sports betting lines for week two of the season.  Ben Roethlisberger’s health status is still questionable, so Willie Parker will try to lead Pittsburgh again as they travel to Jacksonville as a one point favorite.  After beating up on his little brother last week, Peyton Manning will look to lead the Colts to victory against Houston. Indianapolis is a whopping 13.5 favorite in the match-up.

Seattle, last year’s highest scoring team, showed the power of their defense with their gritty 9-6 win in Motown over the ravenous Lions.  They take their act back home to the comforts of Qwest Field where they will face the resurgent Arizona Cardinals.  The Seahawks are favored by a touchdown. 

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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