Argonauts host Tiger-Cats in East Division melee

Football Betting Lines

09/28/2011 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a huge win in the second annual Touchdown Atlantic game last weekend in Moncton, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats get back to a traditional venue this week as they challenge the Toronto Argonauts at Rogers Centre.

Hamilton, which hasn't won back-to-back games since late July, put itself in position to make that happen this week after blowing the doors off Calgary in a 55-36 final. During the matchup with the Stampeders, quarterback Kevin Glenn converted 16-of-23 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns, with two of the scoring tosses going to Marcus Thigpen who turned his six receptions into a game-high 139 yards. Thigpen also returned a missed field goal 118 yards for a touchdown near the end of the third quarter as well.

On the ground the club ordered up another three majors, one each by Avon Cobourne (84 yards), Terry Grant and Quinton Porter, who often finds himself involved in the action on short-yardage plays.

As for the Argonauts, they won for just the third time this season and the second time since the opener when they topped Calgary in a 23-21 decision. Last week, the team needed more than just a little luck to secure a narrow 25-24 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, getting the margin of victory from a single by Noel Prefontaine with under a minute remaining in regulation.

From a defensive standpoint, the Argos put a severe hurting on Winnipeg as they knocked out both Fred Reid and Carl Volny with torn ACLs, and also sent quarterbacks Buck Pierce and Alex Brink to the sidelines as well with aggravated ribs and a shoulder injury, respectively. Nevertheless, even as the Blue Bombers watched significant contributors fall to the turf they still were in the mix right up until the end.

Toronto got by with just 268 yards of total offense, a mere 88 yards through the air as Steven Jyles converted 11-of-20 passes for one touchdown, was sacked three times and had three passes intercepted by his old team which traded him away to Toronto in March. Running back Cory Boyd stepped up to produce a game-high 109 yards rushing on just 12 attempts, but was kept out of the end zone. Instead, it was Jyles who crossed the goal line from 18 yards out in the first quarter.

Chad Owens, who caught five passes for 34 yards in the decision last week, was huge for the Argonauts when it came to kick returns, bringing seven punts back for 85 yards and posting 142 yards on six kickoff returns as well. Just as was the case last season, Owens has been huge when it comes to combined yards in this league and easily paces the CFL with 2,211 yards at the moment. His next closest competitor is Hamilton's Thigpen who has 1,542 yards. Even though he might have some issues keeping his hands on the ball when he's taking big hits, Owens is still someone who can contribute mightily to Toronto's efforts when given the opportunity.

Getting the ball into the hands of Owens is becoming more and more important given how poorly the Toronto offense has operated, first under Cleo Lemon and now under the direction of Jyles, the latter showing a dismal 59.4 efficiency rating since assuming the starting quarterback job. Toronto's 20.9 ppg this season is easily the lowest average of any team in the CFL and it doesn't help that the defense, outside of last week, has been horrendous with a league-high 400.5 ypg allowed.

At the other end of the scoring spectrum is Hamilton, which is second at the moment behind Montreal with 29.2 ppg. The Cats have a quarterback under center in Glenn, who is tied for second in the league in passing scores with 18 and consequently has the third-best passer rating as well at 96.6, due in large part to his passing touchdown frequency. But make no mistake, Hamilton is also getting the job done thanks to Cobourne who, since coming over from the two- time Grey Cup Champion Montreal Alouettes, is third in the league in rushing with 735 yards and has reached the end zone eight times on the ground.

Dating back to 1950 and only taking into account regular-season matchups, Hamilton is ahead in the all-time series with the Argos by a count of 121-86-2. The Tiger-Cats won the most recent meeting by a score of 37-32 back in August, which means the squad has captured five in a row and six of the last seven encounters. The teams are set to close out the regular season against each other as well on November 3.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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