'07 Preview: D.C. adds offensive weapons to already potent attack

Soccer Betting Lines

03/23/2007 - Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Soccer's D.C. United were the best team in the regular season during the 2006 season but ended up losing in the Eastern Conference Final Series to the New England Revolution because it couldn't finish quality offensive chances.

This offseason, United are taking steps to make sure that doesn't happen again.

The first step was to sign Brazilian forward Luciano Emilio from the Argentinian League team, River Plate. Emilio has made his presence felt in United's first few Champions Cup games, scoring four goals in three contests.

"We didn't just fall into Luciano, we did our research," United head coach Tom Soehn said. "We have had our eye on him for awhile. We always try and find the type of player that not only fits your needs on the field but also fits the bill on what he brings to the clubhouse. We knew coming in what we were getting and he has done nothing but prove us right on those accounts."

United also recently finalized a deal to acquire Brazilian forward, Fred. Not the most notable Brazilian forward named Fred, who currently plays for French Ligue 1 power, Lyon, and is its leading scorer. This Fred is a 27-year-old who played in the Australian league this past season and, while not as skilled as the previously mentioned player, will be a very good addition to the D.C. attack.

Fred, who is expecting to get his international clearance and officially join United's roster in the near future, will team up with Emilio and United's career goals leader, Jaime Moreno, up top with 2006 MLS MVP Christian Gomez running the attack from the midfield.

Those four players will highlight the D.C. attack that will, no doubt, be one of the strongest groups in the MLS this season. Not only is it highly skilled, but it has much more experience than last season with the trade of 17-year-old Freddie Adu to Real Salt Lake.

"We have a good balance of technical players and a good balance of workers and we are always looking to add another piece," Soehn said. "Fred is a Brazilian who actually adds to the technical part. We take a lot of pride in possession and attacking and defending as a team to create attacking situations."

On the defensive side, United return 2006 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year, Troy Perkins, and 2006 MLS Defender of the Year, Bobby Boswell, two of the hardest working players on the team.

"Evaluating our team, we always try to get the right balance of technical players along with the type of players who work hard," Soehn said. "Anytime you find that right balance usually you can make things happen. We have built the team with a lot of depth which will give us a lot of options and that is very important to a long season."

Another one of the changes on the team this season is the promotion of Soehn to head coach. Soehn worked under previous head coach, Peter Nowak, for three season's before being promoted when Nowak accepted a job with the U.S. National Teams under Bob Bradley.

"It really hasn't been that different," Soehn said about his promotion. "Peter and I shared a lot of the same philosophies and a lot of the same responsibilities. Having the core of guys come back, they know what to expect from me and I know to expect of them. It has been a pretty easy transition."

From top to bottom, United look to be one of the top teams in MLS this season. Whether that is enough for United to play in the 2007 MLS Cup - which will be played at RFK Stadium on Nov. 18 - in front of their home fans, remains to be seen.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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